NOTES

18 January 1998

If it's true that the Lopezes will support Lim, his candidacy should now be taken a lot more seriously. Easy access to the Lopez media empire will provide Lim the vehicle to reach a much broader segment of the electorate in the crucial few months left before May. While island-hopping is most effective, because it allows direct contact with voters and local leaders, media exposure is by far the most efficient means of campaigning especially considering time and budget constraints. (Based on a 1995 estimate, up to 200 rallies nationwide can reach only around 650,000 voters--unless the rallies are aired.)

ABS-CBN is unquestionably the dominant TV network, with up to 70-percent audience share in some parts of the country. They, of course, also have radio stations, although, nationwide, it is the Iloilo City-based Bombo Radyo that has the biggest audience. If they want to maximize their candidate's "winnability," the Lim camp may also want to work on Bombo Radyo's Roger Florete.

There are also rumors that Ayala Avenue may now shift its support to Lim. De Villa just doesn't have the temperament to pursue the presidency. Even Torres, who stuck his neck out for him before the Lakas convention, decided to support Erap instead. Any possibility of De Villa's political resurrection is now getting dimmer and dimmer. If he pursues his presidential bid, he'll be nothing but a spoiler. Even the vice presidential race, with the likes of Arroyo and Osmena running, now looks too tough for him to join. He may want to consider running for the Senate instead--perhaps as leader of Lim's senatorial team.

Expecting a 23-billion-peso windfall from the rumored sale of his 20 percent stake in San Miguel Corporation, Danding Cojuangco, is the object of political courtship these days. His friends in LAMMP can certainly use some cash, and the administration, through Senate President Maceda, is also reportedly seeking some form of accommodation. A known sabongero, Cojuangco is likely to wager big. Which side will he place his bet on? With his cash flow, he'll probably wager on both Erap and JDV.

Speaking of cash flow, it's now an established fact that Imelda Marcos has at least $540 million in Swiss bank accounts. The government claims it's only tip of the iceberg. Mrs. Marcos herself said so a couple of years ago and, in a taped conversation, Ferdinand Marcos once boasted that he has around $10 billion worth of cash and gold. Even assuming it's only $540 million, Mrs. Marcos is still filthy rich. We're not just talking of paper net worth here (e.g., stock ownership). It's money in the bank that, at an interest rate of 6 percent, should generate $32.4 million a year. That should buy her more shoes than she needs.

Kapunan and his RAM cohorts should have adopted this prayer before they ran amock in the 80s: Lord, Grant us the Serenity to accept the things we cannot change, the Courage to change the things we can, and the Wisdom to hide the bodies of the people we had to kill because they pissed us off.

What's the deal with Shahani? First, she was for Osmena. Then, she sided with De Villa. Now she's supporting arch-rival De Venecia. Torres is the same too. First, it was De Villa. Then, he officially declared support for De Venecia. Now, he's with Erap. Talk about political frogs! Whatever happened to integrity?

The Public Forum section of this Web site has flushed very funny political jokes from readers. Here's one of my favorites from Stephanie:

Joe De Venecia was walking along the beach when he stumbled upon a Genie's lamp. He picked it up and rubbed it and lo-and-behold a Genie appeared. JDV was amazed and asked if he got three wishes. The Genie said, "Nope ... due to the economic crisis in Asia, I can only grant you one wish. So ... what'll it be?"

JDV didn't hesitate. He said, "I want peace in Mindanao. See this map? I want this part of the Philippines to be free from years of war and conflict between Muslims and Christians." The Genie looked at the map and exclaimed, "Goddammit, man! Muslims and Christians don't really get along. They've been fighting for decades. I'm good but not THAT good. I don't think it can be done. Make another wish."

JDV thought for a minute and said, "You know, people don't really like the way I look. Those Internet nerds call me Mickey Mouse. I kind of agree. I mean, my nose can park two trucks while my ears can catch satellite TV signals from Hong Kong. I want to have a new face for the forthcoming presidential elections. Fix my face Genie! That's what I want." The Genie let out a long sigh and said, "Lemme see that map again."

Comments?

mbionat@post.harvard.edu