NOTES
NOTES
26 October 1997
If you've read the most recent SWS survey results, you will note that Arroyo gained the most when the list was narrowed down to five. She shot up to 28 percent (from 18 percent, with all 10 candidates included), while Estrada moved up to 23 percent (also from 18 percent). The survey may seem like good news to the Arroyo camp, but with the actual number of candidates not likely to be restricted to five, Arroyo's current lead may actually look a bit precarious, because the nine percent that she gained were mostly "votes" for liberal and/or pedigreed candidates such as Roco, Magsagsay, Osmena, and Gordon (all four were excluded in the shorter SWS list). As these candidates stick it out and gain ground, the type of voters they will attract are likely to be drawn from Arroyo's support base. As I suggested earlier, the administration may even secretly underwrite the candidacies of other aspirants especially the pedigreed ones like Magsaysay and Osmena (not necessarily with their knowledge) to undermine support for Arroyo and ultimately give the administration candidate a fighting chance. (Teddy Benigno calls this Malacanang's Litter Strategy.)
Estrada, on the other hand, is bound to keep his 18 percent (in a field of 10), unless the Church and other detractors do a better job at undermining his candidacy. As it is, the womanizing issue is not making any dent. He probably won't participate in public debates to avoid the competence issue either, so rivals will have their work cut out for them. They'll have to dig deeper and raise more damning issues. If they can't effectively link him to corruption, criminal activity, or clear cases of buffoonery as an executive, he probably deserves to be president.
Santiago, even if Arroyo and Estrada continue the slide (both dropped to 18 percent in a field of 10), may be able to hold her 14 to 15 percent (Ilonggo/youth vote) together. It is important to note that the SWS ratings represent the percentage of all surveyed. There are about 14 percent who did not indicate a choice, so Santiago's 14 percent may actually translate to 20 plus percent in relation to the "total votes cast." In a field of ten, that may be enough to win. (Ramos generated about 24 percent of the total votes cast in 1992, and that was in a field of seven candidates.)
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The "official entry" of nutcase Lucio De Gala in the presidential contest is a refreshing development. He's now on a "banana diet" in preparation for a rigorous presidential campaign. He also plans to join forces with Imelda, so watch out Arroyo et al.
Speaking of nutcases, does anyone know what happened to Pascual Racuyal? You know--the perpetual presidential candidate who carried an authenticated Certificate of Sanity. He had some pretty odd ideas--such as the building of plastic roads. De Gala would be a good match for him. Perhaps they should have their own parallel elections and form their own parallel government. A lot of our "normal" politicians can then join them in the service of the Republika ng Flip-pinas.
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