NOTES

05 December 1997

If De Venecia's claim that Ramos will definitely endorse him is true, today (as in "at this very moment") is about the right time to do it. Hogging all the headlines for his role in the release of the two hostages held by the NPA, De Venecia looks pretty good--at least for now. Interestingly, word is out that Ramos may have to delay the announcement of his choice until January. Any PR points De Venecia may have scored with his recent "accomplishment" will have been gone by then (heck it will be gone by Monday next week). Has De Villa clinched the much sought-after FVR "anointment"? Maybe--unless De Venecia has something up his sleeve: Something like, "Betray our political partnership and I'll let the cat out of the bag. Remember the multi-billion Amari deal scandal? I can reveal your ... " Mishandled, this endorsement deal can blow up in FVR's face.

Of course, it can very well work both ways. Having worked together for a while, FVR may know enough dirt about De Venecia to force him to toe the line. Obviously, it won't be a case of two grown men exchanging blackmail notes. Each knows his own vulnerability. Each will have to make his own judgment call.

10 December Update: Fearing what a spurned De Venecia can do to him and the future of Lakas, FVR made his choice known Monday. Apparently, De Villa never made progress in the popularity surveys despite all the resources poured into his PR campaign. FVR gave him a lot of latitude, but he blew it big time. De Venecia is not doing great in the polls either, but at least all the trapos will gravitate around his candidacy. The next significant political event is the release of the Social Weather Station's latest survey on December 15. Let's see how Lim does after all the ruckus.

30 November 1997

As soon as Mayor Lim announced his interest in the presidency, I knew it would be fun putting together a presidential make-over for him. All I needed was his picture to show up somewhere online. Well, after weeks of not finding anything better than his scalp (as he spray painted the front door of one of Manila's drug dealers), I couldn't wait any longer. Picture or no picture, check out Alfredo "Dirty Harry" Lim. Fortunately, Chairman Mao has a snapshot to spare. While Mao's face is a little more chubby and angelic, both share a remarkable aura of serenity. Combine that with Clint Eastwood's bandido, we'll-kick-the-bad-guys'-ass persona in Dirty Harry, and Erap "Asiong Salonga" Estrada may one day wake up feeling like a wussy. Expect to see a lot of competitive chest thumping between these two toughies.

A lot of sympathetic, well-meaning columnists and broadcast commentators will continue to portray Lim as the up-and-coming presidential alternative, but unless he is able to parlay the current ground swell of support into a nationwide political organization or, more realistically, into a solid alliance or coalition with other political forces, it will be an uphill battle. There are some good signs including a seemingly sympathetic Cardinal Sin and possibly Cory Aquino, a vociferous and exponentially growing anti-crime movement that is likely to endorse his candidacy, friendly overtures from other political parties, support from an increasing number of regional leaders, and his quite impressive crowd-drawing power.

In the short-term, the critical test is whether or not he has gained tangible momentum, that is, how he now fares in the polls. He'll need to be in the upper league (double digits) fast. Only then can he truly consolidate and fully mobilize his political base and expect the ever crucial financial contributions to be more forthcoming.

It is also important to note that any lingering sign of a measured, tentative interest in the presidency on his part--while understandable from the perspective of a pragmatic man--generates a measured, tentative support on the part of the public. It's a hard position to be: Should he give up a virtually guaranteed senate seat (he is the clear leader among a list of "senatoriables") for a rather uncertain but more exciting bid for the highest post of the land? Most politicians will probably pocket their winnings and run, but Dirty Harry does not always follow the path of least resistance.

The fate of the LAMMP obviously hinges both on Angara and Erap. A very intelligent man that he is, what Angara really wants now is to bag the vice presidential nomination. He should know that Estrada (who received 18 percent in the last SWS poll versus Angara's 1.8 percent) cannot possibly allow himself to be robbed of the nomination just because at least one of his delegates decides to sell out (with each group entitled to 75 delegates, Angara can conceivably machinate an upset). What pushes the Angara camp to insist on the convention process is the possibility that Erap might pick someone else as his running mate. The nationwide LDP machinery--however rickety at this time--and the threat of victory in the LAMMP convention are Angara's bargaining chips to bring Erap to a commitment.

Erap is probably amenable to settle out of the convention. It's Maceda and his rather murky agenda that's making the process a little more complicated. Erap's camp should insist on what's good for them, and that's to keep the LAMMP intact.

The other variable here is Lim's impact on Erap's ratings. If Dirty Harry's rising star continues to dominate the political firmanent and causes Erap's ratings to hurtle south, then it won't be surprising if Angara, a top-notch lawyer and former UP president, decides not to play second fiddle to a B-movie actor.

I'm not really sure if Lim's rise in the polls will be necessarily at Erap's expense, though (see Amando Doronila's column). We should remember that, based on the most recent SWS survey, Erap led only in Mindanao (actually tied with Arroyo who was also ahead in Metro Manila and in Northern and Central Luzon; Roco led in Southern Luzon; and Santiago in the Visayas). Being a media creation not too unlike Miriam in 1992, Lim is likely to gain points in media-saturated urban centers including Metro Manila--cutting more into Arroyo's or Miriam's constituencies. If Lim is to gnaw at Erap's support base, it will have to be in conjuction with an effective Erap-bashing campaign. Otherwise, the net effect of Lim's entry is to further divide the "intelligent" vote and, thus, strengthen Erap's lead.

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