NOTES

3 January 1998

For those of us looking for issues in the 1998 elections, LAMMP's campaign agenda covers the key ones: FLAMES, which stands for Food security and environmental protection, Livelihood and jobs, Anti-graft and corruption, Mass transportation, traffic management, and socialized housing, Education and health reforms, and Safety and public order. Ideally, candidates should discuss each of these "burning" issues, and the electorate should vote based on who they think presents the best ideas. Other variables such as personality (including who does the Swing or Tango best) should be secondary, if not irrelevant.

In reality, the average voter (and we're not talking only about Filipinos here) doesn't really have the attention span to view the candidates through a broad spectrum of issues. Most have one or two salient issues in mind, and the best way for candidates to appeal to them is by representing the issue that is most compelling. Whoever strikes the right chord gains the crucial advantage. In short, I don't think chanting FLAMES in political rallies will seize the voters' imagination and convert them into rampaging campaigners. It is important to have an intelligent grasp of all issues in public debates, but for the purpose of generating masa votes, Estrada is better off with something similar to his "Erap para sa mahihirap" slogan in 1992. Angara's "Ang gara ng kinabukasan kapag may pinag-aralan" in 1987 did not do too bad either.

It is interesting to note that in 1992, it was Mitra (the candidate perceived to be the most trapo) who carried the longest list of issues, with 14 items in his campaign kit. Paul Aquino, chief LDP strategist, said in a post-mortem interview that 90 percent of LDP's campaign efforts were devoted to raising issues such as employment, rural credit, health, cooperatives, and taxation. Well, guess what. Mitra ended up at the tail-end among the key contenders. His laundry list of issues reached the shore of public opinion like a long but weak wave that died before it could even make a splash. Ramos, who was more simply packaged as the harbinger of political and economic stability, and Santiago, as the nemesis of corruption, led the pack.

This is not to suggest that voters are condemned to political shallowness. The media certainly plays a very crucial role in defining the national agenda and identifying what issues are important. Constant focus on kidnapping and lawlessness in the news obviously makes peace and order a primary issue. Reporting a good dose of general economic malaise likewise puts the economy on top of the agenda. Throwing in more complex sub-issues such as crime-fighting strategies and alternative economic policies is responsible journalism.

Speaking of slogans, Congressman Zubiri, who is reportedly planning to run for the Senate, is sure to draw extra attention with "Zubiri-biri-good." Asinine? Perhaps, but what's so deep about "Magsaysay is my guy?" The latter was actually inspired by Eisenhower's "I like Ike" slogan in the U.S. presidential elections. As we all know, both Magsaysay and Eisenhower won by landslides.

Without the Maceda wing of the NPC, Estrada becomes a bit more vulnerable. The full force of the administration's wrecking firepower will also be directed at Erap, so we may eventually see some erosion in his seemingly solid 18 percent support base. With marginal Lakas contenders such as Magsaysay, De Ocampo, Habito, Pagdanganan, Alvarez, and Morato not running and assuming that Arroyo will now run for VP, alternative candidates may now seem to have a better shot.

The information leaked to the media regarding the last SWS results does not look too encouraging for alternative candidates, though. Roco, who looked increasingly viable until this last survey, hurtled south with a big thud: from almost 10 percent to less than 3 percent. The media ruckus surrounding Lim did not exactly translate into real popularity either (not yet anyway): Lim reportedly received only 3.5 percent. De Villa's 7.4 percent may be a moral booster to his campaign, but with the summary desertion of his Lakas supporters after FVR's rejection, he may have reached his peak.

It can be argued that De Villa's 7.4 percent is largely artificial. Note that the announcement of FVR's endorsement was made sometime in the middle of the three-week survey period. Up to the half-way point, some respondents might have chosen him because they thought he'll be endorsed. The rest of the survey period might have been favorable to De Villa also because of the short-term sympathy FVR's "betrayal" generated and especially after De Villa's timely theatrics (his emotionally-charged declaration of war against Lakas and dirty, traditional politics).

Whatever happened to Lim's rise at the expense of Erap? Some veteran columnists have argued that Lim will "eat" into Erap's constituency. Well, guess what. The alternative candidates are eating each other's piece of the pie. Lim's gain from zero to 3.5, Osmena's move from 3.4 to 5.5, and De Villa's rise from 4 to 7.4 are at the expense of Arroyo (18 down to 15), Santiago, (13 to 9) and Roco (9 to 2.5).

As I have been suggesting, Erap will continue to keep his 18 or so percent unless his detractors do a better job at bashing him. (The 18 percent is starting to look like "hard" or solid political support.) The Church has been a little too lame or timid in its attacks so far. Tatad and Morato's hatchet job will hardly make a dent. Almonte will likely do a better job. Expect a well-documented expose/scandal about Erap soon.

While there is clearly a strong argument for a more unified Third Force, no one has the political ascendancy to lead the group. With his relatively good, albeit artificial rating, politically orphaned De Villa may very well pursue his own bid with a segment of big business pledging logistical support. He may also convince another presidentiable to play second fiddle. Active support from the Iglesia Ni Cristo (this is just a rumor) and the Couples for Christ (this group gave him the CPR he needed while in the throes of political death) will certainly help reinvigorate his floundering campaign. If Lim folds up and settle for a senatorial bid, Cory and Cardinal Sin will be forced to take another look at De Villa. Having the INC, Couples for Christ, Cory, and Sin (in addition to his military network) will be a stunning political resurrection for the De Villa candidacy.

Lim and Roco are clearly facing a serious setback. Lim can rationalize his low ratings as due to his late entry. Roco cannot be blamed for completely ignoring what he has already labeled a "statistically improbable" survey result: In 1992 he happened to be one of the statistical flukes. SWS never had him in the top 24 senatorial candidates, but when the votes were counted, he won. (Another very curious fluke was Neptali Gonzales who was number 27 in the final SWS survey but who finished strong at number 8. As far as the presidential race is concerned, however, SWS has a pretty impressive record.)

Santiago herself is at the lowest ebb of her political career, but she can hope to gain back some points by her often splendid oratory in public debates.

Excluding Erap's 18 percent, potentially De Venecia's 12 to 14 percent (How did I come up with that figure? Nothing scientific: That's about how far Danding Cojuangco and Ramon Mitra went in 1992 despite their resources and political machinery), and about 16 percent who may not vote at all, the alternative candidates will have only about 52 percent to divide amongst themselves. If there are more than three alternative candidates (De Villa, Lim, Roco, Santiago, perhaps even Osmena) and none among them takes off as a runaway leader, Erap may very well be the next Philippine president--again, unless detractors will do a better job at justifying why he shouldn't be.

On the other hand (and here the plot thickens), it's hard to deny that the trapo camp can potentially generate seven or so million votes (just about what a candidate needs to win). With many local Lakas leaders beholden to De Venecia, they'll be asked to estimate how many votes they can deliver, and ... hmmmm ... I think that's where the pressure to drop or add a few zeros in the tallies emanates.

Will it be a choice between Erap and Joe De Venecia? To quote a Japanese journalist after learning that Senator Aquino's escorts shot the opposition leader point-blank in the head, "Goddam the Philippines!"

Cory Aquino and Cardinal Sin should really play a more active role in "unifying" the alternative political forces. While having only one candidate is an impossibility, Aquino and Sin can probably influence a couple to look in other directions. (Remember how the Cardinal's simple comment on Arroyo's age and cry-baby tendencies helped reverse her political fortunes?) Ideally, there will be enough room for two contenders in the Third Force block. Three may be a bit crowded but there will be space to maneuver. Four will be political suicide.

So who should give in? De Villa? Lim? Santiago? Roco? Osmena? If I were to decide, I'd pair De Villa with Osmena or Pimentel. Lim is unlikely to get Mar Roxas's nod, especially assuming that Arroyo will be a vice presidential contender (what with Mar's hinay-hinay political philosophy), so how about a Lim-Gordon tandem? Or Lim-Pimentel? That leaves us with Roco and Santiago, who can perhaps form their own alliance. How does a Bicolonggo block sound? How will they decide who runs for president? I don't know. Toss a coin or something. What if Tito Sotto decides to join Santiago? Roco will need to join forces with either De Villa or Lim.

There. As you can see, even my wishful thinking leaves us with at least three contenders from the Third Force. While calling it "wishful" provides a pretext for my scenarios not to happen, I want them to be realistic enough so I can claim credit if any of them do.

Comments?

mbionat@post.harvard.edu