NOTES

21 December 1997

Fresh from Harvard's Kennedy School, Rafael Alunan returned to the Philippines hoping to run the campaign of a personal friend he expected would be backed by the administration. With De Villa now at war with Malacanang, Alunan is stuck with a political dud.

How long will anger and bitterness at Ramos's "betrayal" drive the Alunan/De Villa camp to engage in political bravado? Sooner or later, pragmatism will prevail, and many supporters will realize that shaking off De Villa's teka-teka image is not as simple as declaring political disengagement from the president who rejected him. Sooner or later, they'll have to face the fact that De Villa is not presidential material (he is certainly no Ramos who, before the '92 elections, was the consistent leader in SWS surveys) and that his pussyfooting on the Cha-cha issue has irreversibly doomed any possibility of him becoming president.

In my hypothetical world of rational political players, De Villa should give up his bid for the presidency. By not further cutting into the "intelligent" vote, his "enlightened self-sacrifice" will help ensure the defeat of traditional politics. He can still follow through with his "Third Force" initiative, perhaps by leading a senatorial slate composed of non-traditional and highly respected candidates or by personally campaigning for a select group endorsed by the Third Force movement. Of course, running for vice president remains a viable, more realistic alternative.

With 40 million voters and 7 or so serious candidates vying for support, generating around 7 million votes may be sufficient to win the presidency. (Ramos received 5.34 million votes in 1992 or 17 percent of registered voters and 23.6 percent of votes cast.) Rest assured that JDV and the rest of the trapo camp will work hard to find those 7 million votes. With Ramos's endorsement, JDV will do a much better job than Speaker Mitra in '92.

Weaker candidates in the opposition should really give up their bids. Imagine all of them running: Estrada, Arroyo, Santiago, Roco, Lim, De Villa, Osmena, Gordon, Pimentel, Tatad, and Honasan--it will be mass political suicide, a senseless, bloody sacrifice to usher in the reign of Joe De-Lehensiya (god of all trapos in Philippine political mythology).

Tatad and Honasan are not serious contenders. They're probably just making themselves available as "vice presidentiables." Osmena, Gordon, and Pimentel--aside from being vice presidential materials--may be persuaded to just go for the Senate. De Villa, hopefully, will get his senses back and give way. Lim, if the next survey confirms his popularity, will be a major contender especially with Cardinal Sin and Cory Aquino behind him. Roco is smart enough to play it by ear, although only a significant drop in the next SWS survey will probably convince him to slide down to vice president (he'll do well with Arroyo, Lim, or Miriam, perhaps even with De Venecia). Erap, of course, is definitely running, and I don't see any reason why Santiago and Arroyo should not.

As long as Estrada is okay with the Zamoras and Danding Cojuangco, screw Maceda. The Estrada-Angara ticket is the best LAMMP can possibly come up with. Did Maceda actually think that Angara will offer the support of the LDP without him (Angara) running for vice president? Estrada should be given credit for asserting his own decision in this instance. Before, it seemed like Maceda was running the show, with Erap as his thoughtless dummy.

For those who are new to the Internet and have no clue as to how to access audio or video on-line, visit Real Media and download their software. You obviously need a speaker and enough memory space to be able to play.

In case you haven't visited "Political Theme Songs" yet or don't have the system to run audio, here are the lyrics of the snippets from Yano's Tsinilas album.

Fidel Ramos (on his decision to "graduate"): ... mahilig ka pa ba rin sa chicks ... nag-a-awting ka pa ba rin sa united esteyts ... congratulations ... gragradweyt ka na pala ...

Joe DeVenecia I (Trapo King): ... wala kang silbi sa amin ... trapo, trapo, ka kasi ... trapo, trapo-trapo ka kasi ...

Joe De Venecia II (on FVR's endorsement): ... mahal ka ba n'ya talaga ...

Erap Estrada I: ... may misis pero siyam ang kabit ...

Erap Estrada II: ... mukha raw takas ... mukhang mandurugas ...

Trapos I: ... ang kapal mo hindi ka manipis ... gino-goodtime mo lang ang aming buwis ...

Trapos II: ... ang sarap mong ihawin ... ipalamon sa mga pating ... wala kang silbi ...

Konyong Congressmen: ... paano mag-ispeech ang konyong kongresista--alam 'nyo you know, alam 'nyo you know ...

Rene De Villa I (after being spurned by Ramos): ... iniwanan ka pala ng 'yong boypren ...

Masang Pinoy I: ... patingin-tingin, di naman makabili ... walang ibang pera, kundi pamasahe ...

Masang Pinoy II: ... bahala na, bahala na, bahala na ...

Comments?

mbionat@post.harvard.edu