NOTES

31 January 1998

My book entitled How to Win (and Lose) in Philippine Elections: The Dynamics of Winning and Losing in Philippine Electoral Contests should be out in about two weeks. The book is a study of the major variables that affect election outcomes in the Philippine setting. Chapters include Issues, Media Exposure, Polls and Think Tanks (and Madame Auring), Speech Power, Slogans, Campaign Financing, Job Performance, The Church, Celebrities, Personality, Educational Background, and Fraud and Violence (this last chapter will be particularly useful for those who want to help minimize fraud in May). While it is a serious book (definitely not as amusingly eccentric or satirical as this Web site), there are a lot of references to specific cases and situations which, as those of you who are familiar with Filipino politics know, are not at all boring.

Published by Anvil, How to Win in Philippine Elections will be available in National Bookstores and other booksellers around the country and in several of Anvil's outlets around the world. I'll have more specific information about where you can purchase a copy soon. Online, the book will be listed by Amazon.Com and Barnes and Noble. (Try an author search, by entering "Bionat," two weeks from now.)

The first, pre-election printing will be in limited quantity. Printers are now hoarding paper--hoping to make a killing in the May elections. Since there will be approximately 100,000 political candidates this year (many of whom will be interested in the book, because most realize that political battles are won not by clueless, dim-witted candidates but by those guided by political savvy and correct assumptions), those who want to reserve a copy may want to e-mail me. Please specify which country and city you are from so I can direct you to an outlet or request Anvil to mail you a copy.

The price will depend on what the dollar-peso rate will be in two weeks. (Paper is imported.) Unless something dramatic happens, it should be between two and three hundred pesos. The dollar price should be less than 15 dollars.

One of the reasons why our Asian neighbors are facing a much more serious economic crisis is because of crony politics. Indonesia and South Korea are in deeper trouble, because their governments are known to have given special favors to a select group of companies and banks. The involvement of Suharto's son and daughter in Indonesia's floundering giant corporations is particularly flagrant. In South Korea, two former presidents were convicted of having illegally received funds from favored conglomerates. Ramos, on the other hand, has shown a fair amount of fairness and political will. Perhaps I need to be disabused, but I don't think we really have too many cases of behest loans and corporate favoritism under Ramos--certainly not as much as we saw during the Marcos years.

The issue of cronyism is what particularly worries me about a De Venecia presidency. Patronizing just about everyone he shakes hands with, JDV has the making of a crony king just like Marcos. Traditional politicians often think that everyone has a price, and JDV seems very adept at appeasing even his detractors. Early on, who would have thought that Ramos would endorse him? How about Arroyo's startling decision to be his running mate? And Shahani's statement of support? He gets official endorsements left and right--certainly not because he is a man of integrity, but because the endorsing groups have particularistic needs that he often promises to meet.

Clearly, JDV likes to pander. Just recently, he claimed the Philippines will overtake the U.S., Japan, and Europe in 25 years! He even tried to curry the favor of the generally anti-trapo youth by extending the terms of office of SK officers. (SK's national president reportedly refused the offer.)

A president whose political base is held together not by a vision--let alone a set of compelling principles--but by political patronage is likely to lead a profligate government. He is likely to throw money in all directions, which means more pork and more loans. The country will need to borrow heavily and, ultimately, JDV will drag the nation into a hole probably much deeper than where Indonesia and South Korea are right now.

Clinton, also known as the "Unibanger," is a careful liar, his answers thoughtfully crafted to give himself the illusion that he's actually telling the truth. For example, when asked if he used drugs, he simply said he didn't violate any drug laws of the United States. (As we all know, he smoked what he claimed was his first and last joint in England.) Asked if he had an affair with Jennifer Flowers, he replied that he had, indeed, caused pain in his marriage. (It was an admission but was not really an admission.) Asked if he dropped his pants in front of Paula Jones, he did a Reagan: he couldn't recall meeting her. More recently, when asked if he had a sexual relationship with Monica Lewinsky, he said there is no improper relationship (note the present tense) and that his relationship with her was not sexual (as opposed to oral).

Our own "chick boy" Erap Estrada would have none of those semantic nuances. Ask him if he's had affairs with an even longer list of women and Erap will be quick to say, "Sure, I boinked them all. Next question ... "

Erap will lose a lot of his supporters among intelligent voters if he continues to participate in public forums with other candidates. During the foreign correspondents' meeting, for instance, the Philippine Daily Inquirer reported how Erap pretty much presented himself as the village idiot. On the issue of the administration's neglect of agriculture, he said there is no better proof of that than Ramos, JDV, and Arroyo planting rice in La Union. (Hmmmm... I'd like to think that he is being cryptic here, but it simply doesn't make sense: Ramos, JDV, and Arroyo plant rice, and so it proves that the government neglects agriculture?) When the issue of negative attacks was raised, he replied, "critics hit me in the back, because I'm in front." (In a normal rally, this will generate polite, even genuine chuckles. In the company of journalists fishing for substance, however, it may sound a little too corny.) With regard to the sorry state of the economy, Erap said, "... It's down and they (the business community) have nothing to fear." (It's down ... and therefore they have nothing to fear? Tsk, tsk, tsk, tsk ... )

It looks like Lim has clinched the support of the Lopezes. On January 24, the movie about the Manila mayor's life, General Alfredo Lim, was shown via ABS-CBN--nationwide and during prime time. There are other movies based on his life which, when shown to voters, should help improve his popularity rating.

The Lim campaign is a major experiment on media marketing. He is not a difficult product to sell--from 3.5 in December, he zoomed to 14 percent in the last SWS survey. A sustained media blitz will see some more improvement, especially with Arroyo now out of the race and with De Villa having, I think, peaked and now on a slow but sure descent. As far as polls are concerned, Asiong Salonga will soon be within Dirty Harry's shooting distance. The next question is, will his party and supporters have the wherewithal to ensure that his votes are properly counted?

Osmena's second-place finish in the last SWS survey may be very interesting, but it's not entirely surprising. The South (Visayas and Mindanao) has a legitimate grievance against the Manila-based govenment. Lack of political representation and the disparity in the allocation of national resources are very valid gripes that can easily capture the minds of people in the Southern provinces. As far as I know, the Cebu-based Sun Star network of community newspapers is also sympathetic to the Osmena candidacy. The Sun Star family of newspapers happens to have the the biggest readership in the country. Osmena is also reportedly quietly using local radio stations--which in the provinces have an enormous influence in shaping public opinion--to sell his PROMDI idea.

It's also important to note that many of the voters who would have chosen Macapagal-Arroyo (note the outstanding pedigree) may have the natural predisposition to vote for Osmena (an equally established political brand name). With Macapagal-Arroyo (and Magsaysay) out of the presidential race, Osmena is the only pedigreed candidate left. (As I suggested in an earlier column, Macapagal-Arroyo's 3.5-percent drop and Magsaysay's 3.5-percent gain in one of SWS's quarterly surveys suggest the existence of a segment of voters who are strongly attracted to pedigreed or brand-name candidates--making Magsaysay a potentially useful spoiler had Macapagal-Arroyo become a serious contender.)

It will be interesting to see how Osmena will stand against the inevitable wind of negative attacks. Part of the reason why he managed to sneak up in the polls is because he hasn't been taken seriously and has thus been spared from scathing criticisms. Let's wait and see what John has to say.

Harris Black and Associates (HBA) is risking its reputation big time. Known for its history of relatively accurate polling (through Harris Poll), HBA is now allowing itself to be used by JDV to counter his consistently low rating in the SWS surveys.

While the Harris Poll has done well in pre-election surveys in the U.S. (including the one in 1992 when some pollsters, including Gallup, made the mistake of ignoring Ross Perot), it was bought by the Gordon Black Corporation (which is more into marketing) in 1996. We don't really know whether management change has had any ramifications in the polling outfit's survey methodology, but its recent survey results in the Philippines stink like Pasig River.

The Philippines is really new territory for HBA. Unlike in the U.S., where a simple device that randomly picks telephone numbers can create the required sampling of the general population, the procedure is a little more complicated in the Philippines (where only 1 out of 30 or 40 has access to telephone). Regardless of Harris Poll's reputation in the U.S., there are also questions of competence and integrity among the outfit's local interviewers and managers. How much training did they receive? How can they explain JDV's sudden jump from single digit to more than 20 percent without having to completely dismiss SWS results as completely off?

Basing on prior elections, ARO's results, while not as bad as other fly-by-night pollsters (e.g., Bell Air Research, Facts Base), have not been too impressive either. Of course, even the most reputable SWS comes up with curious results. Roco's drop from almost 10 percent to less than 3 and then his jump back to 10 seem to suggest a methodological flaw more than just a statistical fluke. Despite that, SWS is still the best reference--at least until the next election results prove its ratings to be grossly erroneous.

As for HBA, they should review their survey procedures and salvage their image by doing a better, more credible job next time. They might need to do a little reorganization--unless they're into this mainly "for the fund of it."

The issue of political kickbacks is now threatening to explode in the face of corrupt congressmen. Right after Secretary Enriquez "revealed" early this week that kickbacks can be up to 45 percent of the project cost, Mr. Domingo of the president's anti-graft and corruption commission reported that, in some cases, it's up to 100 percent (and I thought the 30 percent figure I cited two weeks ago was high). Domingo referred to ghost projets that have budgets and may actually have documented plans but are, in fact, non-existent.

To minimize graft and corruption, we obviously need to have more transparent processes and to provide disincentives. Under the latter, throwing a few in jail should help stigmatize the practice. Domingo and Desierto are reportedly conducting investigations in order to punish the guilty. The major challenge now is how to find people who are willing to testify.

Speaking of stigmatizing, check out the Web site of the week. It's called PARA-SITE, where crocodiles abound.

Comments?

mbionat@post.harvard.edu