NOTES
Marvin P. Bionat

8 February 1998

Morato’s recent expose should have some impact on Erap’s popularity. Even with the most recent SWS survey showing him way ahead of the pack (with Arroyo out of the race, Erap got 28 percent vs. second-placer Osmena’s 17 percent), Erap may be "beatable” after all. The Morato bombshell is, obviously, the first major salvo of a Malacanang-hatched political blitzkrieg.

I strongly disagree with the suggestion (proposed by columnists like Mahar Mangahas) that, to overcome Erap’s populist appeal, other contenders should focus on the positive (i.e., talk about why they think they are more qualified and capable). Negative attacks smack of malice and ill-will, but in the real world, they are effective--especially if supported by solid evidence. If rivals want to spare the country from Erap, now is the time to swing those wrecking balls.

Obviously, the candidates realize that they (maybe with the exception of Miriam?) won’t look good if they, themselves, do the mud throwing. Manoling “Bitch Boy” Morato, while a declared candidate, is really in the employ of the administration--allowing JDV to operate above what is turning out to be a vicious campaign.

Another potential bane to the Erap candidacy is Imelda’s decision to join the fray. Believe it or not, Mrs. Marcos actually generated around 2.4 million votes in 1992. Who were those voters? Certainly, not the type who would rally around Lim, who resisted Marcos; Roco, who attracts the more cerebral liberals; or Osmena, whose family was staunchly anti-Marcos. Without her in the contest, most of Imelda’s 2.4-million-strong political base would be voting for someone like Erap--former KBL and Marcos loyalist and, like Imelda, somewhat charming, even if not the most intellectually gifted.

In 1992, Imelda spared the country from Cojuangco by cutting into his vote. Now, she might very well save the country from an Erap presidency, albeit unwittingly. She is obviously running for an entirely different reason. Appointing herself as the “Mother of the Filipino Nation,” Imelda wants to share the Marcos fortune--$35 billion according to Zobel--with the poor ...

How nice;-)

Still on Erap, the casino issue is particularly troubling, because the videotape in Morato's possession reportedly shows him playing with 500,000-peso (in 1996, around 20,000-dollar) chips. The voters wouldn’t care too much if he wagered spare change, but we’re talking--at least according to the allegations--losses of up to 10 million pesos a night. Worse, he is reportedly shown rubbing elbows with reputed drug lord Charlie “Atong” Ang. After other reported cases of arrogance shown by the people surrounding him (e.g., Erap's security entourage reportedly harassed the guards in a subdivision when they--unaware that it was a group of government hotshots--stopped Erap's party from entering for the usual identification check), the voters must now be really worried that, if they elect Erap, his rogue friends will “rule” with impunity.

I don’t think that we should really be hard on the alternative candidates for their failure to rally around a single candidate. Personal ambition (which is certainly healthy in the grand scheme of things), distorted perceptions (loyal supporters and--out of politeness--many voters will often tell politicians what they want to hear), and optimistic assumptions (Erap’s carotid veins will be hard enough by the end of April?) combine to give them a sense of mission.

Because politicians are stubborn, voters should compensate by being flexible. To readers who trust me enough to ask whom I think they should support, I can only give you a general guideline for now. (They have until Monday evening to file their candidacies, so we don't know who are actually running yet). First, identify and cross out the unacceptable ones (the trapos, the corrupt, and the idiots). Second (assuming that the first step leaves you with a couple more), get a sense of the viability of each of the more acceptable candidates. You don’t want to waste your support on a candidate, however acceptable, if that candidate is a consistent tailender in the polls (SWS). Third, help in the campaign, cast your vote, and make sure that no zeros are added or dropped from the precinct tallies, to the municipal and provincial statements of votes.

With the ad ban still in place, computer savvy candidates are bound to turn to the Internet to promote their candidacies. In fact, there is now a growing number of political sites. Tatad created one recently. Aksyon Demokratiko’s Web page came out the other day. (Roco presents quite a compelling vision here.) JDV and the House of Representatives have new “official” sites too. (Is it just coincidence or did they take my lampoon last week a little too seriously?) The Osmena camp is also coming up with one very soon.

Good luck to Gil Ramos on his senatorial bid!

Comments?

mbionat@post.harvard.edu