NOTES
Marvin P. Bionat

8 March 1998

Rumors that the so-called “White Paper” originated from this site are untrue. It got posted by “Balot” in a couple of sections (Readers’ Views and Public Forum), but that was after it was seen in other sites including the Manila Bulletin’s Discussion Room (which was “shut down” by MB’s management but is still accessible through this site). According to one reader, it also got printed in the Philippine Star. Apparently, it has taken a life of its own in cyberspace (via e-mail) and is causing a bit of a stir.

The candidates are doing the right thing by completely ignoring what are clearly fantastic allegations. I kind of suspect that the male candidates may actually relish their newly-found Don Juan image, though. (This is a country where machismo is important and where even the national hero, Jose Rizal, is profiled in textbooks as an “international playboy.”) Suddenly, even the unexciting Ed Angara has looked a little more dashing (in a lover-boy sort of way).

If recent attacks on Erap are making any impact, he is--so far--able to quickly counter and recover by embarking on a rigorous campaign schedule. (He remained at 28 percent in the last SWS survey.) He seems quite adept at minimizing criticisms with his smart-alecky one-liners. In addition, his cast of campaigners--heavyweight celebrities like Nora Aunor and Fernando Poe--are powerful allies whose presence in rallies are guaranteed to draw the biggest crowds.

Speaking of celebrities, I don’t think Senator Roco should exclude “stars” in his rallies (as he asserted in his proclamation rally). Like Salonga in 1992, he will end up with only around ten percent if he doesn’t go beyond appealing to the liberal vote (in addition to the Bicol vote). The youth and women sectors are sizable in absolute numbers, but--as SWS surveys have indicated--voting trends are, quite significantly, also a function of class. Without ignoring the ABC crowd where he is doing well, Roco has to work on D and E, where the bigger chunks of the votes are (around 70 percent and 20 percent, respectively).

Now that there is an ad ban, Lim’s campaign has become an even bigger challenge. Any positive media exposure he now receives depends on day-to-day reports and commentaries by media outlets--no calculated media-based marketing blitz that would have been really valuable. He may have the logistics to hop around the country in the next sixty days (he reportedly has three choppers at his disposal and averages 12 stops a day), but exposure through rallies is often inadequate. While now in second place, he is 14 points behind Erap. In votes (using 38 million as the total number of voters), that’s a deficit of around 5.3 million. In order to overtake Erap in 60 days, he’ll need to convince around 90,000 voters per day or 7,500 per rally to vote for him! (Note, of course, that most of those who go to the rallies are already for him.)

Clearly, something extraordinary is required to beat Erap. A really damning scandal (i.e., a solid case of corruption or moral turpitude much worse than having sexual liaisons while he was separated from his wife) needs to be found. If rivals can’t find one (on top of their tendency to claw each other down), who is to stop the masa from electing a president they think they can trust?

My book, How to Win (or Lose) in Philippine Elections, is now out in stores. Let me know if you have a problem finding a copy.

Comments?

mbionat@post.harvard.edu