NOTES
Marvin P. Bionat

18 April 1998

During a televised debate in February, Erap reportedly said this about globalization: "Well, whether it's good or bad, we cannot afford not to be included in the globalization. Because we cannot be, aah, I would say, an island. So we have to be included in the global, aah, trade, and global, aah, whatever. I would say that in globalization, I would say everybody should be included." Still wondering why he stopped participating in public debates?

ABS-CBN's use of Josephine (a young girl who forages heaps of trash to help her family survive) as one of the panelists during the first televised presidential debate was a poignant reminder that the May elections should be about overcoming poverty, about taking responsibility for the country's future--if only for the sake of innocent children who have become the worst victims of the inadequacy or outright failure of government policies. At this stage of the campaign, each of the presidential candidates should pause and think if his or her candidacy is still about Josephine. With four or five of the more credible, competent candidates clawing each other down and divvying up the intelligent vote, it's hard to imagine that they care about the Josephines of this country. Here's an extraordinary opportunity to display a supreme act of statesmanship by foregoing their personal ambitions to forge a united front against the threat of an Erap presidency, and they're all stubbornly passing up the chance.

On the other hand, it's hard to blame candidates like Senator Raul Roco for sticking it out. First, Roco correctly points out that the people behind the LORD (Lim, Osmena, Roco, De Villa) initiative are mostly Lim sympathizers. Second, the Bicolano senator has the right to dismiss surveys like the bumblebee. (According to the science of aerodynamics, the bumblebee cannot possibly fly. Wind tunnel experiments demonstrate that its wingspread in relation to its body size, shape, and weight makes flying impossible. Unaware of these scientific experiments, the bumblebee flies anyway.) In the 1992 senatorial elections, Roco was written off by pollsters and was not even in the top 24. Well, he went ahead and campaigned anyway ... and won. Recently, his drop from almost 10 percent to under 3 percent and then his rise back to 11 percent in a matter of weeks (without any known issue for or against him) further cast some doubt on the integrity of SWS surveys.

If there's any remote possibility of a merger, it would be Lim and De Villa. First, De Villa's candidacy was launched largely out of pique after FVR unexpectedly chose JDV over him. JDV's victory would be De Villa's ultimate defeat. With JDV catching up in the polls (now tied with Lim in second place), the real possibility of JDV winning is a sobering counterpoint to De Villa's own apparent decline in the polls. Putting his weight behind a more viable candidate like Lim will help ensure that JDV doesn't win. Second, Cory Aquino may still have sway over key De Villa supporters such as Raffy Alunan, Ping de Jesus, and Mon del Rosario. A vigorous brokering effort on the part of Aquino could bring results. Third, even the most ardent financial backers behind the De Villa campaign must by now realize that theirs is a lost cause. If they're from the business community, you'd think that they'll be a little more pragmatic.

It is interesting to note that it was only after Arroyo settled for the vice presidency that Erap's rating shot up to almost 30 percent (from a steady 18 to 21 percent). Had Arroyo stayed in the presidential race, Erap would have been easily beatable. Inviting Arroyo to join Lakas-NUCD may thus turn out to be the administration's biggest mistake.
Speaking of mistakes, rumors that Osmena may quit in favor of JDV may have the same undesired consequence, because, like Erap, Osmena is doing well in class D and E. His decline may be Erap's gain, and so keeping him in the race serves to contain support for Erap.

Even the Economist Intelligence Unit (in its March report) suggests that all it takes is one damning scandal to get Erap out of the way. The ball is now on General Almonte's court, and the clock is ticking fast. What's up with those political bombshells? So far they've been dud scuds, political missed-siles and dumb-shells.

This will be a good time to scrutinize those voters lists. Election watchdogs have started reporting cases of systematic attempts to perpetrate fraud: thousands having the same address, people being paid to register in more than one precinct. At the local level, one important figure to look at is the total number of registered voters in relation to the general population. If it's more than half, something's fishy.

If you get the chance, please watch the Probe Team (GMA) this Tuesday evening (4/21); there's a piece on trapos.

In addition to Amazon.Com my book, How to Win (or Lose) in Philippine Elections, is now available through Barnes and Noble.

I'm now toying with the idea of writing a satirical account of the May elections. Perhaps I should call it Primarily Discolored.

Comments?

mbionat@post.harvard.edu