NOTES
Marvin P. Bionat

23 May 1998

This Web site is now one year old. From an average of 12 hits a day during our first three or four months, our hit counter registered up to 3,000 visits per day during election week. It was heavy traffic for a freebie site supposedly designed to accommodate only up to 500 visitors a day.

Based on NedStat (a hit-tracking service which we started using just before the elections), half of the visits to this site are network-based--suggesting that the actual number of visitors is much larger. (ABS-CBN claims to have generated an astounding 2.4 million hits on election day.) It’s also encouraging to know that access is trully global, with visitors from virtually anywhere in the world including Macau, Burundi, Bermuda, and the Azores.

By next elections (2001 for midterm and 2004 for presidential), the Internet will be a truly powerful medium. For as long as there are trapos to bash and political follies to satirize, Philippine Political Update will be around till then.

Speaking of trapos, JDV lost miserably! As of this writing, he has not conceded yet. Still cooking something up? Or is he just being wishful? It’s not June yet, so anything can happen to Erap (on top of a death threat): lightning, heart attack, hit by a bus, a last-minute revelation that Erap’s certificate of candidacy was never filed properly or that Erap is really Malaysian--being a direct descendant of Datu Sumakwel ... The possibilities are endless.

For those who have been following this section, there is really nothing to write about in terms of post-election analyses. This year’s presidential contest may be the most predictable election ever. The results also confirm that SWS means business, while the rest (Facts Base et al.) are shameless instruments of shameless politicians. Next time, they’ll just change their names and, again, poll their way to the bank. How about the slew of “political analysts” who were way off target? Many have a long history of dim-wittedness but people will forget, so next elections the same garrulous opinion makers will shoot their mouths (or pens) off like they really know what they’re talking about.

The people behind Erap’s campaign will naturally expect to draw from their contributions (financial or otherwise) to the campaign. Many will take a lot of credit for Erap’s victory and will thus expect some influence. Sooner or later, many will be disappointed and will feel excluded. There will be resentment towards those who will inevitably be perceived as enjoying greater influence. Ultimately, there will be resentment towards Erap himself.

The generally snooty Philippine media will not make things any easier for Erap. Sooner or later, he will have to make tough decisions. Sooner or later, his loyalties will become apparent. Sooner or later, he’ll be thoroughly bashed and attacked from so many directions his head will spin.

Will he weather his six years? It will greatly depend on the quality of people he keeps (he should really have FVR around not only for advice on the economy but also on PR strategies). Expectations are so low; Erap is actually in a good position to pull off surprises. Also, members of the business community have indicated their optimism--like they really have a choice.

The people have chosen the candidate they think they can trust, so Erap should be given the chance to prove or disprove his mettle.

Is Erap’s victory People Power of some sort? One of the tales circulated to reinforce Erap’s tough-guy, no-nonsense image was that, while he was San Juan mayor, he reportedly peed on policemen caught sleeping on duty. Add the fact that his campaign entourage was headed by cinema legend Fernando Poe and voila: I guess Erap is a PeePoe Power phenomenon.

Suharto’s resignation is certainly good news for East Asia. He’s a tired old man. He should enjoy his retirement. Besides, any father who names his daughter Tutut should be banned from holding any position of influence.

Comments?

mbionat@post.harvard.edu