NOTES

13 December 1997

A couple of local TV stations have reported the arrival of Imelda Marcos for her eye operation here in Boston. Not surprisingly, the newscasters made the usual reference to Meldy's 3,000 pairs of shoes. These media people should really be careful about the figures they cite on the infamous shoe collection (Meldy's blood pressure has been shooting up and down lately). It's not 3,000 pairs. It's only 2,900 dammit!

Like New York, Boston has Macy's. Meldy's visit will be a big boost to the local ladies' accessories market.

Before leaving Manila, Mrs. Marcos--officially the "poorest" member of the House of Representatives--distributed sacks of rice to employees in the Batasan.

Politics nothwithstanding, welcome to Boston Mrs. Marcos! Check out the new Philippine restaurant in Quincy. They serve dinugu-an and stuff.

Now that Ramos has made his choice for the 1998 presidential elections official, let's second-guess his motives:

1. By endorsing JDV, Lakas remains intact and thus retains control of the House of Representatives and the Philippine Senate after '98. RDV runs on his own and wins, so Ramos keeps his party in power and still hands over the presidency to his favored protege.

The problem with that scenario is Ramos can only hit one bird with one stone. Lakas, even if JDV loses, may very well keep the majority after '98. RDV winning the presidency without Lakas? That may be a bit of a stretch.

2. Choosing RDV would have gelled military support behind a new political player. Not having done that, the military establishment is now uncommitted and very available--just in case circumstances will warrant another stab at perpetuating Ramos in power (e.g., the El Nino problem can potentially create a national crisis).

This one is not exactly impossible, but it's probably a tad on the paranoiac side.

3. It may have been just a simple case of choosing the lesser evil. JDV played his cards really well by wisely allocating his resources. For years, he cultivated a nationwide network of supporters by means of plain and simple political patronage. Towards Ramos's "decision time," he effectively used his friends in the media to give the general impression that he has the overwhelming support of party leaders. Having done that, he then sent clear signals that he was ready to bolt the party and take his supporters with him if spurned. Of course, a Ramos betrayal of their years of political partnership would also have opened a can of worms--something Ramos would rather not deal with as he hopes to leave the presidency in a blaze of fame and glory (certainly not flame and gory).

JDV is clearly an extraordinarily patient and persistent man, relentlessly courting just about everyone (including exiled communist party leader Joe Ma Sison). And he's good at it. Look at him ... and his beautiful wife. If he managed to get Gina De Venecia's nod, I'm not particularly surprised that he also won Ramos's.

RDV, on the other hand, is a novice, almost reluctant politician. He didn't really have a personality to match the PR hype surrounding his bid. He even managed to lose the almost guaranteed support of Cardinal Sin and Cory Aquino. According to the September SWS survey, only 4 percent favored his candidacy (down from 6 percent from a prior survey). Even with Ramos's endorsement, it would have been a struggle. I suppose he can still run without Lakas ... if only to keep his many overly optimistic supporters happy and occupied.

4. Choosing JDV is a good way to get back at those who furiously and arrogantly opposed the Charter change initiative: In the RDV camp, Ramos must be delighted to exact revenge on key people like Ping de Jesus, Peter Garrucho, and Ramon del Rosario--former allies who antagonized Ramos during the acrimonious national debate surrounding term limits.

For those who have been inquiring about my book on Winning and Losing in Philippine Elections, it has been accepted by Anvil Publishing. Obviously, it has to go through the normal publishing house processes (e.g., a thorough review by a panel of experts and house editors, design issues). I was hoping to get it out at least six months before the 1998 elections, but that has become an impossibility. I will certainly make an announcement on this Web page whenever the book is finally out. You may also want to check--every now and then--the Anvil Publishing section at any National Bookstore.

Comments?

mbionat@msn.com